A Swindle, of Sorts... pt. 9

What aren’t the dice doing? To answer that, remember that dice are cubes. Casino dice are the most perfect cubes ever made outside of a scientific laboratory. They are within 1/10,000 of an inch of perfection. The operators use micrometers and balances to ensure they are “on the square.” They are perfectly balanced. The spots weigh the same as the die, as the material used to make the spots has the same density as the material used to make the rest of the die. They are translucent. Loads or BB’s can’t be used to throw off the die’s weight because you can see inside the die. Right out of their packaging, casino dice’s edges and corners are sharp enough to draw blood from slow and inexperienced hands on the game. Casino dice are as close to beauty and perfection as it gets inside a casino.

The reason dice are so perfect is because they are the Random Generators for the game. Their behavior determines the outcome of the game, and the amount of money the house will eventually win, even though the operators realize only a slight mathematical advantage on the game. This advantage, called the House Advantage (HA), is calculated by observing the percentage of difference between Natural Odds and Payoff Odds.

Natural Odds are the real probabilities of what the dice will do. Dice have six sides, so two dice have thirty-six combinations. This is expressed by the formula C=x^y, whereby C = number of combinations, x = number of sides, and y = number of dice. Of those thirty-six combinations, only one of them is 6-6, (total = 12, herein referred to by the total…). This means that if you bet that the dice are going to roll a 12, the chances are thirty-five to one against. Thirty-five combinations are losers, and one combination is the winner. Natural Odds are 35-1.
Here’s where it gets complicated. Instead of paying 35-1 for a bet on the 12, the operators only pay 30-1. This is the difference between Natural Odds and Payoff Odds.

And what a big difference it is. It’s this difference that we call the House Advantage, (HA). The HA is calculated as the difference between the two different sets of odds, expressed as a percentage. The way to calculate the HA is pretty easy. Take the difference between the Natural Odds and the Payoff odds and calculate the percentage therein. In the case of 12 Craps, Natural Odds = 35, and Payoff Odds = 30. 35-35=5. 5/35 equals 0.1428. That’s the same way as saying 14.28% HA. That means that the operators realize a whopping 14.28% advantage on every dollar bet on 12 Craps. That’s a HUGE number. Even when the player wins, he loses!

But the house doesn’t always realize such a large win with the game of Craps. Only the proposition bets will gouge the money out of your wallet like that. The rest of the bets, such as the Pass Line, and the Don’t Pass Line, only realize a little over 1% HA. This low HA is comparable to Baccarat, whose claim to fame is the lowest HA of them all: ergo, Craps’ popularity to those who know something about HA. Those who know about HA make the bets which have the least hold; they make the bets that are the closest to Natural Odds to minimize the house’s advantage. They leave the long shots to the amateurs.

And it’s the long shots that invite the cheap shots.

Imagine the radical change in HA if one die were not to roll, as is the Scooter’s expertise. The Scooter doesn’t have to slide both dice for the team to realize a massive advantage. Instead, they change the Natural Odds of occurrences to their favor, and bet accordingly. If the Scooter kills a 6 on one of the dice, the Natural Odds of 12 Craps being rolled goes from 35-1 to 5-1, while the payoff remains 30-1. Bets on Yo Eleven, whose natural odds are 17-1 with payoffs of 15-1, and bets in the Field, which pay on rolls of 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, and 12 all become very lucrative because their Natural Odds also fall to 5-1 and 1-2 respectively.

The Scooter slides one of the dice so as to change the Natural Odds of occurrances, and the Fat Man block and distracts.

All that’s left now is how to take advantage of the shift in Natural Odds. For that, we need The Money.